Wednesday, 19 September, 2018

Global oil production hits a new record, led by US and OPEC

Image612092018 Oil prices climb as Iran sanctions loom
Ginger Lawrence | 16 September, 2018, 04:30

West Texas Intermediate gained almost $2 a barrel to $69.45.

NYMEX WTI futures and options contract values for December 2018 delivery traded during the five-day period ending September 6, 2018, suggest a range of $56/Bbl to $85/Bbl with a 95% confidence level.

Benchmark Brent crude LCOc1 futures rose 68 cents to settle at $79.74 a barrel.

Oil futures in NY climbed 2.5 percent, while gasoline futures popped higher by 2.8 percent on Tuesday.

"A drawdown in crude oil inventories isn't very comforting when you're going to lose a lot of Iranian crude in a couple of weeks", said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group.

USA crude oil production C-OUT-T-EIA fell by 100,000 bpd, to 10.9 million bpd, as the industry faces pipeline capacity constraints.

US nationwide crude inventories may have fallen 2.25 MMbbl last week, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts ahead of government data due to be released on Wednesday.

Regarding crude oil production, the EIA said on Tuesday it expected US output to rise by 840,000 barrels per day (bpd) between 2018 and 2019 to 11.5 million bpd, lower than a rise of 1.02 million bpd to 11.7 million that was previously forecast.

Dawn reports further that while answering a question on whether US restrictions on trade with Iran were discussed at the US-India talks, she said that there was a discussion in general over the sanctions and on Trump administration's goal to hold Iran accountable for its alleged 'maligned behaviour'.

Official weekly government data will be published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday.

'Monster' storm Florence: What you need to know
An intense wave, as well as heavy rains, will announce on Thursday on the coast of Las Carolinas, the arrival of Florence. Florence was a Category 3 hurricane on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale with 120-mph winds on Thursday.

Still, fears over a supply crunch persisted, with Iran's output slumping by 150,000 barrels last month, according to Opec's monthly market report. As Florence moves closer to the southeastern coast of the USA, the storm appears likely to strengthen, forecasters said.

Novak said global oil markets were "fragile" due to geopolitical risks and supply disruptions.

"It is related to the fact that not all the countries have managed to restore their market and production", he said, referring to outages and falling production in Mexico and Venezuela.

East Coast motorists may see "dramatic" spikes in gasoline prices, according to AAA, as mass evacuations stretch supplies and Florence's heavy rains imperil major fuel pipelines.

"Russia has potential to raise production by 300,000 barrels (per day) mid-term, in addition to the level of October 2016", he said.

"Second-largest producer Iraq boosted its output 90,000 bpd to 4.65 million bpd".

USA shipments to Japan will also rise to a record average of at least 134,000 bpd, the data showed.

Oil traders were also watching the progress of category 4 Hurricane Florence, which is expected to make landfall in the U.S. by Friday.

Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 6.2 million barrels, versus expectations for a 1.4 million-barrel increase, the EIA data showed.