Monday, 06 July, 2020

India quarterly growth worst in two decades as lockdown bites

A man looks at packages after picking them up as others wait in a queue to receive theirs at an Amazon office in Kohima capital of the northeastern India's economy seen slowing rapidly in March quarter, with worse to come
Ginger Lawrence | 30 May, 2020, 04:42

According to the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) data, the fiscal deficit for 2019-20 worked out to be 4.59 per cent of the GDP, while the revenue deficit was 3.27 per cent. Nomura has predicted that April - June 2020 will see a massive contraction of 25 percent and getting back to pre-pandemic levels of growth is unlikely in the next three years.

The GDP growth was much better than the economists' had estimated, however the numbers are still lower than an expansion of 4.7 per cent estimated in the previous quarter.

3-In the fiscal year 2018-19, the country's GDP had expanded 6.1 percent.

It said in a statement that the estimate may be revised as more data is gathered from businesses impacted by a nationwide lockdown imposed on March 25 that is now scheduled to end on Sunday.

An Amazon delivery person drags a bag containing packages as he steps out from his office to make deliveries in Kohima capital of the northeastern I
Indian economy grew at 3.1% in January-March 2020, the quarter in which Covid-19 hit

The GDP at current prices in 2019-20 is estimated to attain a level of Rs 203.4 lakh crore as against the first revised estimates of Rs 189.71 lakh crore in 2018-19, showing a growth rate of 7.2 per cent as compared to 11 per cent in 2018-19. Earlier, S&P's Indian arm Crisil, Fitch Ratings and Goldman Sachs projected India's economy to contract 5% in FY21. Further within the industrial sector, the output of the mining and quarrying sector has improved 5.2% and the output of utilities sector gained 4.5% in the quarter ended March 2020.

The government has maintained the lockdown ordered in late March though many restrictions were eased for manufacturing, transport and other services from May 18.

India's coronavirus death toll passed neighbouring China's on Friday, with 175 new fatalities in 24 hours taking the total to 4,706, according to official data. Provisional growth for sectors like Coal, Cement, Steel, Natural Gas, Refinery, Crude Oil, etc experienced substantial loss of production and declined by 38.1 per cent compared to decline of 9 per cent previous month of March 2020.

The lockdown's full impact on manufacturing and services will become more apparent in the June quarter.

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